AGP Executive Report

Sukuk & Capital Markets: Saudi Real Estate Refinance Company (SRC), a PIF firm, priced its third government-guaranteed international sukuk at $2.75bn (5.5-year $1.25bn and 10-year $1.5bn), with 6.8x oversubscription, and doubled its international sukuk programme to $10bn from $5bn. Saudi-UAE Financial Strain: Reports say Saudi banks have been blocking or delaying money transfers to UAE accounts since May, with businesses citing returns/holds linked to central bank restrictions; Saudi authorities denied direct country-specific limits. Hormuz Risk Hits Macro Outlook: The IMF’s 3.0% global growth forecast hinges on Strait of Hormuz reopening assumptions that are now under pressure as US-Iran strikes continue and Trump says the ceasefire is “over,” raising oil and shipping uncertainty. Banking Expansion: Deutsche Bank received a licence to set up its regional HQ in Riyadh, aiming to deepen Middle East corporate and wealth business. Travel & Tourism Push: Saudi launched a unified “Package Visa” to simplify travel bookings for visitors, including Pakistanis, bundling flights, hotels and e-visa services. Infrastructure Pipeline: King Salman International Airport development company is set to tender two infrastructure contracts in Riyadh, including east-west corridor and landside access roads. Business & Culture: McDonald’s Saudi partnered with Them Again to run a 42-day Jujutsu Kaisen campaign, generating 146.9m impressions and 26.1m unique reach.

Strait of Hormuz Shock: The US launched fresh strikes on Iran after Tehran attacked Saudi-flagged and other commercial vessels, with Trump saying the Iran ceasefire is “over” and warning more raids could follow—raising immediate risks for shipping, energy prices and regional stability. UAE–Saudi Solidarity: The UAE strongly condemned the attack on the Saudi-flagged tanker Wedyan, backing measures to protect navigation and freedom of passage. Oman–Saudi Coordination: Oman and Saudi foreign ministers met to discuss maritime security and urge diplomatic de-escalation amid renewed US-Iran clashes. Saudi Energy Resilience: Analysts point to Saudi “economic resiliency” buffers—spare capacity, storage and the Red Sea pipeline network—as the kingdom weathers Hormuz disruptions. Red Sea Pivot: Saudi Arabia is exploring expanding the East-West crude pipeline capacity to export more via the Red Sea and reduce reliance on Hormuz. Aramco Contracts: Saudi Aramco awarded five-year consulting and engineering framework contracts to 11 global firms to support major capital projects. Canada–Saudi Ties: Canadian PM Mark Carney visited Riyadh to expand economic partnerships, including an investment forum and meetings with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. Saudi Travel Upgrade: Saudi Cabinet approved a national visa platform and new visa exemptions, aiming to streamline travel services. Investment Climate Signals: A report said the UAE led Arab FDI inflows in 2025, while Saudi ranked third regionally, underscoring competition for capital.

Green Hydrogen Push: Saudi Arabia has authorised ACWA Power with exclusive rights to export green hydrogen and develop renewable electricity exports, building on the NEOM Green Hydrogen project and expanding access to European and Arab markets. Capital Markets: ASB Capital acted as joint lead manager and bookrunner on Alinma Bank’s $500m Sustainable Additional Tier 1 sukuk, which was over three times oversubscribed, underscoring investor appetite for Saudi debt. Geopolitics & Energy: Gulf markets slid as US-Iran tensions flared again around the Strait of Hormuz; Washington revoked an Iran oil waiver and struck dozens of targets, while Iran retaliated and shipping risk was flagged as “severe,” lifting oil prices. Shipping Risk: Bahri said its VLCC Wedyan was involved in a Strait of Hormuz incident but remained seaworthy with crew safe, as maritime alerts escalated. Legal Demand: Requests for legal support in Saudi Arabia jumped 5,700% since 2024, reflecting fast-changing tax and regulatory needs for foreign firms. Digital Advertising: MBC Media Solutions partnered with TikTok as the platform’s official advertising reseller in Saudi Arabia, expanding local campaign execution and ad inventory access. Travel Facilitation: Saudi Cabinet approved a unified national visa platform, while the Kingdom rolls out its “Package Visa” concept to simplify tourism bookings.

Hormuz Flashpoint: Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Jordan backed Qatar after Iran-linked attacks hit the Qatari LNG tanker Al Rekayyat and a Saudi-flagged crude tanker Wedyan in/near the Strait of Hormuz, with Riyadh calling it a grave breach of international law and warning of wider energy-security fallout. US-Iran Escalation: The US launched “powerful strikes” on Iran and revoked a sanctions waiver allowing Iranian oil sales, as crude markets priced in a fragile ceasefire unraveling; oil jumped toward mid-$70s before later easing. Energy Markets: Brent and WTI rose sharply on renewed supply-disruption fears, then slid back toward pre-conflict levels as traders weighed oversupply signals and the possibility of calmer shipping. Saudi Energy Infrastructure: Saudi Arabia is reportedly considering expanding the crude pipeline to the Red Sea to move more oil without relying on Hormuz, potentially adding up to 2mn bpd. Saudi Policy & Travel: Riyadh rolled out a pilot “Package Visa” to bundle flights, hotels and tourist visas in one booking to boost inbound tourism. Green Hydrogen Push: ACWA won an exclusive Saudi mandate to export green hydrogen and derivatives, plus renewable electricity export projects.

Tourism Simplification: Saudi Arabia launched a “Package Visa” pilot that bundles tourist visa issuance with travel bookings (flights, hotels and transport) via approved providers, aiming to cut paperwork and speed approvals as part of Vision 2030. Oil & Trade Logistics: Saudi Arabia is considering expanding its East-West crude pipeline capacity to the Red Sea by up to 2m bpd to reduce reliance on the Strait of Hormuz, with talks involving regional partners. Energy Deal (Africa): ADNOC Distribution agreed to buy Shell Downstream South Africa for $1bn, taking over about 580 service stations and related fuels and convenience businesses, with a plan to sell a 28% stake to a local empowerment partner. Shipping & Offshore Capacity: Bahri Logistics signed with Grandweld Shipyard to build two advanced offshore support vessels for operations at Ras Tanura Port, boosting offshore responsiveness for energy logistics. Aviation Cargo Expansion: Saudia Cargo ordered four more Boeing 777-200Fs, with deliveries starting Q4 2026 through 2027, to strengthen its freighter network. Construction Momentum: Al Rajhi Capital said Saudi construction activity accelerated in June, with residential leading and the index rising to 56.3 from 51.2 in May. Digital Economy Push: The UAE and Saudi are leading adoption of data streaming platforms for AI, with major shares of organisations already running agentic AI in production.

Oil & Markets: Oil prices settled near pre-Iran war levels as Saudi Arabia cut official selling prices, OPEC+ approved another August output increase, and Hormuz exports recovered further. Business & Regulation: SCBC’s Istitlaa platform opened public feedback on 60 economic and development projects, including draft Saudi Food and Drug Authority rules on medicinal product name/packaging evaluation and Hajj-season tourism hospitality penalties. Construction Pipeline: Saudi Arabia saw June project awards top SAR29.5bn (25 projects), with construction leading by value and the Eastern Region grabbing the biggest share. Aviation & Trade: Riyadh Air expanded India connectivity with daily Mumbai–Riyadh flights from Aug 4, while Saudia Cargo added Boeing 777 freighters to grow its network. Startups & Digital Economy: Saudi’s entrepreneur license is positioned as a fast entry into the Kingdom’s maturing startup ecosystem, supported by incubators and venture funding. Tech & Energy Collaboration: Action Energy and Kellton formed a GCC-focused AI-led digital transformation JV for the energy sector. Stocks: Tadawul’s main index edged higher, closing around 10,813 on July 6.

Oil & Markets: OPEC+ agreed to lift August production targets by 188,000 bpd, nudging Brent and WTI lower as Strait of Hormuz exports show signs of recovery, though supply risks remain tied to Iran-US talks and regional shipping uncertainty. Saudi Finance: Saudi Real Estate Refinance Company (SRC) has mandated banks for a Reg S dual-tranche USD sukuk, with 5.5-year and 10-year tenors, backed by a Saudi government guarantee. Banking & Business Climate: Gulf markets edged on corporate earnings focus while Saudi’s non-oil private sector growth picked up in June, supported by new orders at a four-month high. Aviation & Tourism Links: flyadeal launched daily Riyadh–Hyderabad flights and Riyadh Air added Mumbai service from August 4, while Marriott signed to open The Westin Abha in 2031, expanding hospitality in Asir. Real Estate & Infrastructure: Emaar the Economic City awarded SAR547.4m infrastructure work to Nesma & Partners for KAEC’s industrial projects. Tech & Industry: SK hynix kicked off a $28bn Nasdaq listing to ride the AI chip boom, while Fulkrum reported record Q1 growth and plans to double its Middle East workforce.

Anti-Concealment Crackdown: Saudi Arabia’s National Program to Combat Commercial Concealment carried out 4,500+ inspection visits in June, flagging 104 suspected violations that could lead to penalties including prison and fines. Saudi-Kenya Ties: Riyadh and Nairobi held the inaugural Saudi-Kenyan Political Consultations Committee, signing three MoUs on direct investment, customs cooperation, and Saudi EXIM Bank–Kenya Development Corporation collaboration, plus an agreement on recruiting Kenyan workers. Oil & Markets: OPEC+ agreed to raise August quotas by 188,000 bpd as Strait of Hormuz traffic continues to recover, pushing Brent back near pre-conflict levels and reviving concerns about supply and price pressure. Humanitarian Update: KSrelief said its aid reached $8.54bn across 4,404 projects in 114 countries as of June 2026, with Yemen the largest recipient at $4.79bn. Vision 2030 Finance & Projects: Saudi Arabia will present its 2026 Voluntary National Review at the UN HLPF in New York, while the Saudi Fund for Development inaugurated a $50m Faculty of Medicine at Sri Lanka’s Sabaragamuwa University. Regional Security: Yemen’s foreign ministry warned Saudi Arabia against any “folly” as tensions rise around efforts to break the siege and reopen Sana’a airport.

Startup & Tech Ecosystem: KPMG opened applications for its Global Tech Innovator 2026, a no-fee Saudi startup pitch programme with mentoring, investor access and a global final; submissions close July 31. Consumer Spending & Payments: SAMA data shows Saudi POS transaction value rose 1.9% to $3.36bn (SR12.60bn) in the week to June 27, led by food and beverages, even as transaction counts slipped 1.1%. Business Momentum: Riyad Bank PMI lifted to 53.3 in June, the highest in four months, as domestic demand and new orders improved, while exports weakened amid logistics and foreign competition. Real Estate & Education: Alandalus will buy a prime Riyadh plot to build an 11,000 sq m dual-curriculum educational complex for 2,000 students, with a 25-year lease deal worth SR157m net rental value. Municipal Licensing: Saudi exempts several activities from the 24-hour operating permit fee, including fuel dispensing outside urban areas, hotels, pharmacies and education-related services. Labour Dispute: A Jeddah labour court ordered an Arab barber to pay SR40,866 for breaching a fixed-term contract after leaving without proper procedures. Real Estate Development: Sumou signed a development management deal for a 6,394-sq-m mixed-use Jeddah project, targeting sales above SAR700m. Sports & Innovation: Saudi students backed by Johnson Controls Arabia placed seventh at the MATE ROV World Championship 2026 in Canada, a Gulf first.

Saudi Economy & Markets: BofA’s Michael Hartnett flags a split in the second half: Q2 AI/US leaders are outperforming while “war/inflation laggards” include Saudi (-4%) and oil (-31%), with the Treasuries-to-gold trend hinting at peak inflationary de-globalization. Energy & Trade Security: With Gulf shipping still in focus, Saudi and coalition officials warn they will hit any Houthi attempt to target the Kingdom with “unprecedented” force, while Yemen rights groups accuse Saudi warplanes of obstructing an Iranian humanitarian flight into Sana’a. Water & Infrastructure: Acwa Power is the sole bidder for Bahrain’s Hidd independent water project, a desalination plant expected to start in 2028, underscoring continued Gulf water investment. Digital Services: Saudi’s Tawakkalna added 160 new services in June via 40 public and private partners, expanding access across sectors from health to housing and tourism. AI & Finance: Together AI raised $800m Series C at an $8.3b valuation, with Aramco Ventures among the lead investors, as Saudi-linked capital doubles down on AI infrastructure. Foreign Investment & Business: Banque Misr launched operations in Riyadh after SAMA approval, aiming to serve Egyptian firms in Saudi and Saudi investors in Egypt. Aviation Watch: Saudia defended its sale of five Boeing 777s reportedly destined for Iran, saying it followed commercial and legal procedures through a non-Saudi counterparty. Regional Projects: Mabani Aljazeera plans to invest in Kenya’s Tatu City, backing Jabali Towers as the first tower reportedly sells beyond 80%.

Saudi-Iran Tensions: Saudi Arabia’s deputy foreign minister Waleed el Khereiji attended Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s Tehran funeral, signaling cautious outreach amid a wider West Asia security rethink. Yemen Security: The Saudi-led coalition warned it will hit back with “unprecedented force” against any Houthi attempt to target Saudi airports or assets, after Houthi threats and an Iranian civilian flight to Sanaa. Saudi Property Rules: Saudi Arabia tightened non-Saudi property ownership rules with new executive regulations and a clearer framework for foreign buyers. Counterterror Designations: India’s home ministry designated 23 Pakistan-based individuals as terrorists under UAPA, including figures tied to LeT and JeM, with allegations spanning infiltration, recruitment and financing. Gold & Energy Watch: Gold posted its first weekly gain since May as Fed rate-hike expectations eased; Gulf oil exports rose in June as Hormuz flows improved. Saudi Business Abroad: IIG brought Saudi real estate investors to London’s House of Lords for a “Where Investment Meets Parliament” event. Saudi Tourism Tech: Saudi tourism is leaning into AI for personalized trip planning, with claims of higher booking conversion and smarter destination discovery. Sports Economy Link: Saudi Pro League Al-Ettifaq is named in a FIFA complaint over an alleged unauthorized approach for Trabzonspor’s Paul Onuachu. Real Estate Investment in Africa: Mabani Aljazeera Group bought a 49% stake in Jabali Towers at Tatu City, a mixed-use project near Nairobi.

Saudi-U.S. Rift: Reports say trust between Riyadh and Washington is at its lowest in years over Iran policy, regional security and diplomacy priorities, with Vision 2030 concerns about another escalation weighing on Saudi strategy. Oil & Shipping: Crude prices were steady as traders weighed fragile US-Iran peace efforts; some Strait of Hormuz traffic resumed, but uncertainty remains around tolls and security. Customs Crackdown: ZATCA seized 208,836 amphetamine pills at Al Hadithah border crossing, arresting two suspects and highlighting tighter land/sea/air controls. AI Governance: Saudi Arabia warned that AI is becoming a counterterrorism threat, as regulators worldwide struggle to keep pace with fast-moving tech. Energy & Industry: Saudi Aramco reportedly ramped up Ras Tanura exports and shifted to spot sales; meanwhile, Saudi Arabia qualified 27 companies for a second BESS tender, signaling continued grid storage push. Finance & Business: PwC appointed Faisal Al Sarraj as country senior partner for Saudi Arabia, while foreign investors deployed about $5.3bn into Saudi private markets in 2025. Sports Business: Saudi-backed LIV Golf faces uncertainty after its Saudi backer said it will stop paying bills after 2026.

Saudi Private Capital Inflow: Foreign investors put about $5.3bn into Saudi private markets in 2025 (around 60% of total private capital), with the Saudi Venture Capital Company saying international capital now views the Kingdom as a destination, not just a regional stop. Labour & Migration: Kenya’s PM Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi begins a three-day visit to Riyadh to push stronger protections for 300,000+ Kenyan workers in Saudi Arabia, focusing on labour standards, dispute resolution and ethical recruitment. Aviation & Travel Disruptions: Airlines are cautiously resuming some Middle East routes amid the Iran-US diplomatic push, but many services to Riyadh and Dubai remain cut or delayed. Energy & Trade Security: CENTCOM chief Admiral Brad Cooper met regional leaders in Bahrain to deepen security cooperation and back efforts to keep the Strait of Hormuz open for commerce. Finance & Fintech: Paytm Europe Payments received Luxembourg regulator approval for its payment licence, adding new transaction and acquiring services. Corporate Deals: Yara agreed to buy a Texas ammonia plant for $1.3bn, targeting ramp-up by end-2026. Innovation Push: VAP Group launched VAP Ventures to back 100 startups by 2030 across AI, Web3 and digital games.

Strait of Hormuz Security: The US and 12 Middle East countries, including Saudi Arabia, agreed to intensify joint efforts to keep commercial shipping moving uninterrupted through the Strait of Hormuz, with senior officials meeting in Bahrain under CENTCOM leadership. Oil Market Signals: Saudi Aramco has resumed loadings from Ras Tanura after nearly four months, switching to spot pricing to speed Asia sales as Gulf flows recover post–US-Iran interim deal; crude prices also steadied as Saudi and UAE shipments near pre-war levels. Arbitration Reform: The Saudi Center for Commercial Arbitration (SCCA) published a 2026 country report showing Saudi courts’ high award enforcement and a modern, pragmatic approach, including acceptance of service via SMS/WhatsApp, feeding into a draft arbitration law under consultation. Hajj Pre-Registration: Saudi’s Hajj roadmap update is driving 2027 pre-registration, with pilgrims asked to submit identity, photo, mobile and bank details by set deadlines. Real Estate Deal: Retal signed conditional agreements with Roshn to acquire and develop 163 residential units in Makkah’s AlManar community in a SAR124m ($33m) package. Aviation & Travel Links: Flynas launched its first Riyadh–Budapest route, while Riyadh Air continues expanding international connectivity. Labor & Compliance: A legal update highlights Saudi’s evolving employment framework, including Qiwa-linked contract and workforce mobility rules.

Digital Economy & Connectivity: Saudi Arabia retained the No.1 spot in the 2026 ITU ICT Development Index for the second year running, scoring 99.8/100, with regulators citing continued investment in digital infrastructure, cloud and AI under Vision 2030. Energy & Trade: Saudi Aramco resumed exports from Ras Tanura and is switching to spot pricing to speed up Asia sales after a near four-month halt, with multiple supertankers leaving the Strait of Hormuz as prompt supply pressures crude prices. Aviation & Travel: Cathay Pacific said it will restart Middle East passenger services from September 1 to Dubai and four-times weekly to Riyadh from Sep 1, with freighter flights to Riyadh resuming from Aug 1. Tourism & Culture: Jazan tourism surged in 2025, with visitor numbers up 47% year-on-year to over 4 million and spending above SAR3bn, supported by new attractions and infrastructure upgrades. Projects & Housing: Retal signed SAR123.83m (about $33m) agreements with ROSHN to develop 163 housing units in AlManar, Makkah, with work over 36 months. Social & Safety: YouTube rolled out supervised kid accounts across MENA including Saudi Arabia, adding stricter privacy controls and parental limits on Shorts viewing. Regional Watch: Iran warned Trump and Israel against attacks during Khamenei’s funeral period, as diplomacy around the US-Iran talks continues via Doha.

Energy & Markets: Saudi Aramco sold at least 6 million barrels of crude on an ad-hoc spot basis to Asia, a rare move that underlines how the Iran war’s supply disruptions are still reshaping global flows; Oil Prices: crude extended losses on oversupply fears as Strait of Hormuz traffic recovered and inventories tightened less than expected; Power Projects: Saudi Arabia prequalified 27 firms for the second round of 12 GWh/3 GW battery storage projects under a Build-Own-Operate model across six provinces; Finance & Licensing: Tabby secured consumer and SME finance licences in Saudi Arabia, while foreign investment in Saudi private markets hit SR20bn in 2025; Real Estate: Al Ramz and Oud Capital plan a shariah-compliant SAR267m residential fund; Corporate/Industry: Sipchem’s ethylene cracker expansion is complete and trial production has started; Diplomacy & Trade: Saudi and China discussed expanding strategic partnership, and Saudi foreign minister talks with China focused on energy, industry and supply chains.