AGP Executive Report

Geopolitics & Energy Shock: The US launched fresh airstrikes on Iran after two US personnel were killed and another went missing in an Iranian attack on a Jordan base, with Washington saying the goal is to degrade Iran’s ability to disrupt commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. Regional Fallout: Iran says it has suspended commitments under an interim US deal and warns of “unforgettable lessons,” while attacks also hit Gulf infrastructure including Kuwait’s desalination and oil facilities, with airport operations disrupted. Saudi-US Relations: Reports say trust between Riyadh and Washington is strained over Iran policy and regional security priorities, as Saudi weighs stability and Vision 2030 goals against US pressure. FDI Momentum: Saudi Arabia climbed to 13th globally for 2025 FDI inflows, with net inflows rising to $32.6bn, supported by Vision 2030-aligned sectors like energy, tech and logistics. Business & Investment Signals: Saudi-linked deals and investment activity continue in the region, including infrastructure and energy cooperation themes, even as Hormuz tensions keep oil and shipping risk elevated.

Saudi-UAE Payments Disrupted: The Financial Times reports Saudi banks have delayed or blocked payments to UAE accounts since mid-May amid a widening Riyadh–Abu Dhabi political rift, raising fresh concerns for cross-border business. Sabic-China Deal: Saudi Basic Industries (Sabic) signed a project development agreement with China’s Rongsheng Petrochemical for the Jintang New Materials project in Zhoushan, with a potential Sabic equity investment of up to 50% and a framework toward a final investment decision. Saudi Logistics Push: Saudi Arabia inaugurated a 1 million sq m truck marshalling area at Jeddah Islamic Port and Mawani signed seven logistics investment deals worth about $266.9m to expand port logistics capacity. Oil Prices Jump on Iran Tensions: Brent surged over 4% to around $88/bbl after intensified US strikes and renewed Hormuz-related fears, with Saudi redirecting more crude exports to the Red Sea via Yanbu. Nuclear Accord in Limbo: CNN says the US has tentatively agreed to let Saudi enrich uranium without certain international safeguards, with the draft accord awaiting Trump sign-off. Iraq-Syria Pipeline Plan: Iraq and Syria signed an agreement to rebuild a dormant Kirkuk-to-Mediterranean oil pipeline (about 700,000 bpd capacity), aiming to cut reliance on Hormuz. Pakistan Financing With Saudi Support: Pakistan secured about $27.2bn in external financing in FY26, including $5bn Saudi rollovers, as it fell short of its borrowing target.

Saudi-UAE Business Friction: The Financial Times reports Saudi banks have delayed or blocked payments to UAE accounts since mid-May, raising fears that the Riyadh–Abu Dhabi political rift is spilling into trade and services. Yemen–Saudi Escalation Pressure: Reuters says Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia this week have heightened Pakistan’s worry about being pulled into the conflict, with Islamabad warning Iran that attacks on Saudi are “attacks on Pakistan.” Hormuz Shock to Energy Markets: Oil prices climbed toward a month high as US-Iran strikes disrupted tanker traffic through Hormuz, though traders stayed cautious on whether negotiations can still resume. Saudi Vision 2030 Trade Push: Pakistan’s Senate deputy chairman told a business summit that Saudi Vision 2030 is opening new investment and company-formation pathways for Pakistani firms. Defense & Security Deals: US approvals for major Saudi anti-drone and weapons packages continue amid the regional escalation, while analysts flag more ports and logistics nodes at risk. Saudi Economy & Housing: Saudi homeownership rose to 66.24% as the Kingdom advances sustainable urban development. Ports & Logistics: Bahri Logistics launched a bonded zone at Jeddah Islamic Port to boost trade efficiency.

Gulf Finance Friction: Saudi banks have reportedly blocked or delayed payments to UAE accounts since mid-May, with the central bank denying direct restrictions—raising fresh alarms that Riyadh-Abu Dhabi tensions are spilling into everyday commerce. Saudi Energy Deals: Halliburton won a 285-well onshore campaign contract with Saudi Aramco, while SABIC agreed to buy up to a 50% stake in Rongsheng’s USD 10bn advanced materials project in China. Defense & Procurement: The US cleared about USD 1.96bn in APKWS laser-guided rocket sales to Saudi Arabia as regional security concerns intensify. Shipping & Oil Route Risk: With US-Iran escalation and threats around Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb, Gulf shipping is under pressure and analysts warn of longer routes and tighter supply. AI Governance: Meta’s Oversight Board says major AI models refuse criticism of repressive leaders more often than permissive ones, including cases involving Saudi Arabia. Saudi Aviation/Travel: Cathay Pacific postponed Middle East passenger services amid the latest Middle East developments, while Riyadh Air continues expanding routes. Business Outlook: A Reuters poll flags deeper downturn risks for Gulf economies if Hormuz disruption persists.

Gulf Finance Friction: Saudi banks have reportedly blocked or delayed payments to UAE accounts since mid-May, raising fresh concerns that the Saudi-UAE rift is spilling into day-to-day commerce, though the Saudi central bank denies any direct country-specific restrictions. AI Governance Watch: A Meta Oversight Board study says major AI systems are more likely to refuse to criticize restrictive governments, warning that chatbots could spread government speech controls globally. Saudi Markets: Saudi’s main stock index closed higher on Thursday, gaining 15.77 points to 10,720.28, with SAR 3.3bn in trading value. Trade & Logistics: Bahri launched the Bahri Bonded Zone at Jeddah Islamic Port with ZATCA and Mawani, aiming to speed up regional trade via Red Sea routes. Oil & Shipping Risk: With Houthis threatening wider disruption around Bab el-Mandeb and Red Sea access, analysts flag navigation and supply-route stress as a key near-term business risk. Aviation & Travel: Emirates added a second daily service pattern to Accra, while Saudi’s AI push and partnerships continue to draw international attention.

Gulf Finance Friction: Saudi banks have reportedly blocked or delayed payments to UAE accounts since mid-May, with the central bank denying direct country restrictions—raising fresh alarm over a widening Saudi-UAE rift and its impact on cross-border business. Bangladesh Investment Push: Saudi Arabia is exploring up to $1bn in Bangladesh transport, logistics and maritime projects, with talks focused on modernising the Red Sea Gateway Terminal and expanding opportunities for Saudi firms. Defence Deal for Drone Defence: The US approved a $1.96bn sale to Saudi Arabia for up to 20,000 APKWS-II guidance kits to strengthen air defence against drones and low-altitude threats. Yemen Tensions: Houthis and Saudi Arabia trade escalatory moves as Yemen’s conflict risks widening again, threatening regional stability and trade routes. Oil Market Stress Test: An IMF says the global oil system absorbed the last West Asia shock, but buffers are running low—so renewed chokepoint risks could hit prices harder. Aviation Demand Signal: IATA data shows premium air travel rose 4.5% in 2025, with the Middle East among the highest premium shares, supporting continued high-value travel demand. Cybersecurity Expansion: Rapid7 will expand across Saudi Arabia and six other Middle East markets via Mindware distribution, targeting growing demand for AI-enabled security operations. Saudi Wood Expo: Saudi Wood Expo returns to Riyadh from Aug 30–Sep 1, aiming to connect suppliers and buyers as construction and fit-out demand lifts the wood sector.

Gulf Finance Friction: Financial Times reports Saudi banks have blocked or delayed payments to UAE accounts since mid-May, with the central bank denying direct country restrictions—raising fears the Saudi-UAE rift is spilling into day-to-day commerce. Hormuz Energy Shock: US-Iran strikes intensified again as Iran warned it could keep the Strait of Hormuz shut; oil prices jumped above $85 and Gulf states are accelerating plans for alternative routes like ports and pipelines. Saudi-Bangladesh Ports Push: A Saudi delegation met Bangladesh PM Tarique Rahman, signaling interest in up to $1bn for ports, rail and logistics, including a $180m Bay Terminal proposal by Red Sea Gateway Terminal International. Saudi Market Mood: Saudi’s main stock index closed down, slipping 11 points to 10,704. PIA Privatisation Lesson: A Pakistan SOE reform series says PIA’s management control finally moved to private hands on 30 June after debt carve-outs—framing it as rehabilitation, not just a sale. Saudi Infrastructure Contract: Saudi Downtown Company awarded Ansab the design and infrastructure works for Al Khobar Downtown’s road networks and street lighting. Lucid Rumours Roil Investors: Lucid denied bankruptcy/take-private reports after a sharp stock plunge, but investor confidence remains fragile.

Gulf Finance Friction: Saudi banks have reportedly blocked or delayed payments to UAE accounts since mid-May, disrupting cross-border business ties as Riyadh–Abu Dhabi tensions deepen; Saudi’s central bank denies any direct country-specific restrictions. AI for Enterprise: SAP says Saudi organisations are moving from AI pilots to enterprise execution, stressing trusted data, governance and integration into core business processes as adoption scales. Sukuk Outlook: S&P projects global sukuk issuance at US$129bn in 1H 2026, with local-currency markets (including Saudi) driving growth despite weaker GCC foreign-currency issuance amid conflict. Hormuz Shockwave: US–Iran escalation keeps the Strait of Hormuz and wider Red Sea routes in focus, with Iran warning it could target other export corridors—raising energy and shipping risk for the region. Startup Funding: Saudi AI infrastructure firm Think raises over $8m pre-seed to cut the cost and complexity of AI compute, aiming to expand across the GCC and beyond. Bank Innovation: Saudi Awwal Bank wins global awards for its innovation centre and employee-led innovation programme, reinforcing its push to modernise banking services.

Gulf Finance Friction: Saudi banks have reportedly blocked or delayed payments to UAE accounts since mid-May, a sign of a widening Riyadh–Abu Dhabi rift that is starting to hit cross-border business, even as the Saudi central bank denies direct country-specific restrictions. Hormuz Shockwaves: UAE officials and GCC leaders are pushing for the Strait of Hormuz to reopen, while US policy swings have added uncertainty for shipping and energy flows; Trump has dropped a proposed 20% cargo toll but kept a “full blockade” posture tied to Iranian ports. Energy Diversification Race: With Hormuz risk rising, Gulf states are planning pipelines and new ports to bypass Iranian leverage, aiming to cut dependence on the chokepoint and protect oil exports. Yemen Escalation: Saudi–Houthi tensions are flaring again after strikes around Sanaa airport, raising the odds of wider disruption across regional trade routes. Saudi Dealmaking & Capital: I Squared Capital plans to deploy up to $2bn in PIF-linked assets, targeting digital infrastructure and district cooling as Vision 2030 accelerates. Saudi Business Moves: Saudi’s Knowledge Economic City is rolling out major Marriott-led hospitality expansion in Madinah, adding hotels and branded residences near key transport hubs. Markets & Risk: Gulf bourses are retreating on US-Iran hostilities, while oil prices climb on renewed supply fears.

Gulf Finance Friction: Saudi banks have reportedly blocked or delayed payments to UAE accounts since mid-May, with the central bank denying any direct country-specific restrictions—raising fresh alarm for cross-border business ties. Hormuz Energy Shock: Oil prices jumped to a four-week high as US-Iran hostilities resumed, with Trump proposing a 20% fee on Strait of Hormuz transits and a renewed US naval blockade—while Iran struck UAE tankers, killing a crew member and injuring others. Yemen Escalation: Houthis targeted Saudi Arabia’s Abha airport after Sanaa airport strikes, threatening to unravel a fragile truce as both sides trade blame. Saudi Insurance & Risk: Saudi Re bought a minority stake in London’s Ada Risk to deepen its Lloyd’s specialty underwriting footprint. Tech & Data for Growth: Intermap partnered with Saudi’s NSG UP42 to expand access to elevation intelligence, supporting infrastructure and planning. Cybersecurity Deal: AmiViz teamed up with Cyberhaven to roll out unified AI and data security across Saudi and the wider region. Tourism Signals: Saudi is tentatively easing its stance for LGBTQ visitors ahead of the 2034 World Cup, including a planned Jeddah cruise. Business Projects: KEC awarded a SAR118m contract for Riyadh Schools Complex works, while AtkinsRéalis secured Riyadh Metro and road infrastructure roles.

Gulf Finance Friction: Saudi banks have reportedly blocked or delayed payments to UAE accounts since mid-May, with the central bank denying any direct country-specific restrictions—raising fresh alarm over a widening Saudi-UAE rift and its hit on cross-border commerce. Hormuz Shockwaves: The US says it is reinstating a naval blockade on Iran and will charge a 20% “safe passage” fee for cargo transiting the Strait of Hormuz, as fresh strikes and missile threats keep oil prices elevated and shipping risk front and centre; Egypt and Saudi also urged de-escalation and protection of freedom of navigation. Yemen-Saudi Security: Saudi air defences intercepted Houthi ballistic missile threats aimed at the Kingdom’s south, while the Houthis vowed retaliation after attacks tied to the Sanaa airport flare-up—threatening renewed regional instability. Saudi Labor Compliance: Qiwa says firms can’t change business activity if it would breach nationality diversity limits, and higher Saudization needs would automatically apply when adding activities. Energy & Industry: KGOC targets higher Wafra output to 300,000–350,000 bpd within five years, while Saudi’s ZATCA reported e-invoicing and VAT violations in 61,000 inspections. Markets Watch: US stocks slid on tech weakness tied to memory and SK Hynix concerns, with geopolitics adding to risk-off sentiment.

Gulf Finance Friction: Saudi banks have reportedly blocked or delayed payments to UAE accounts since mid-May, with the central bank denying direct country restrictions—raising fresh concerns for cross-border trade as Riyadh-Abu Dhabi tensions deepen. Labour Compliance: Saudi Arabia extended the work-permit regularisation grace period for employers to 31 Dec 2026, deferring removal on Qiwa for eligible cases and urging firms to close outstanding gaps. Investment Standards: Riyadh Development Company said it has completed independent verification and achieved GIPS compliance for asset owners, aiming to strengthen institutional-grade transparency. Saudi-Canada Business Push: World Bank told Asharq Al-Awsat that Saudi is shifting from driving growth to exporting development knowledge, while Canada’s Mark Carney’s Saudi visit focused on trade, tech, education and critical minerals. Hormuz Shockwaves: Renewed Iran-US strikes and attacks on shipping have disrupted Strait of Hormuz traffic, pushing energy prices higher and rattling Gulf markets. Saudi Tech & Mobility: Saudi EV maker Ceer graduated its first batch of homegrown engineers, and Saudi-linked firms continue expanding in AI and industrial services.

Gulf Finance Friction: Saudi banks have reportedly blocked or delayed payments to UAE accounts since mid-May, a sign of deepening Riyadh–Abu Dhabi tensions even as the central bank denies direct country restrictions. Hormuz Shock to Markets: Saudi and Gulf bourses stayed subdued as US-Iran strikes escalated and Iran again shut or threatened the Strait of Hormuz, keeping oil-price volatility front and centre. Saudi Talent Push for EVs: Ceer, PIF-backed and aiming to build Saudi’s first homegrown EV, graduated its first cohort of Saudi engineers through its Waed scholarship-to-employment track. HRSD Crackdown on Recruitment: Saudi’s HRSD suspended five recruitment offices and revoked seven licenses over recruitment and refund violations, urging use of the Musaned platform. Makkah Real Estate Deal: Umm Al Qura signed reservation agreements to sell three prime residential plots in Makkah via Watheeq Capital’s fund, supporting liquidity ahead of final sales. Bahrain–Saudi Investment Links: Bahrain’s finance minister met Saudi Fund for Development leadership to review support for key projects and expand investment cooperation. Pakistan–Saudi Economic Talks: Pakistan’s finance and energy ministers met Saudi’s finance minister to deepen bilateral economic and energy cooperation. AI Funding Corridor (Jordan–Saudi): STV and Jordan’s ISSF launched a partnership to back generative AI and build an “AI corridor” linking Jordan and Saudi Arabia.

Gulf Finance Tensions: Saudi banks have reportedly blocked or delayed payments to UAE accounts since mid-May, raising fresh alarm that the Saudi-UAE rift is spilling into day-to-day commerce, though the Saudi central bank denies direct country-specific restrictions. Saudi Travel Rules: Saudi Arabia clarified its Visa on Arrival eligibility for Nigerian passport holders and also rolled out a “Package Visa” model that bundles flights, licensed hotels and an e-tourist visa via approved providers. Hormuz Shockwaves: Iran says it has closed the Strait of Hormuz after attacks and US strikes, while the US says it hit Iranian targets following an IRGC attack on a container ship—keeping energy and trade risk front and centre. Aviation & Investment: Riyadh Air’s ticket sales and routes intensify competition with Emirates, while Almabani’s consortium won a King Salman airport contract for lower-carbon concrete. Madinah Real Estate Finance: Knowledge Economic City signed a term sheet with Albilad Capital to fund its Multaqa Hospitality project via a private real estate investment fund. Markets & FX: Forex updates show USD selling at 152.83 and euro at 174.65 (rates vary by country).

Saudi Credit Watch: Fitch affirmed Saudi Arabia’s ‘A+’ rating with a Stable Outlook, citing fiscal buffers and resilience, while flagging oil-price and Iran-related geopolitical risks. Oil & Markets: The US stayed the world’s top crude producer in 2025 at a record 13.6m bpd, while Saudi ranked third at 9.6m bpd. Hormuz Pressure: US-Iran talks are set to resume as Washington pushes for a public guarantee of safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz, with “nuclear dust” also on the table. Gulf Trade Friction: Reports say Saudi banks have blocked or delayed payments to UAE accounts since mid-May, raising fears of a widening Saudi-UAE rift hitting cross-border business. Saudi Governance: King Salman issued royal orders reshuffling the Industry and Mineral Resources portfolio, appointing Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman as minister. Regional Logistics: Russia is aiming to start a commercial logistics hub at Syria’s Tartous port by mid-July, targeting about 250,000 tons per month. Saudi Economy Signals: Saudi eVisa rules for 2026 were updated, with 13 Asian countries added to the fast-track list and multiple-entry stays up to 90 days.

Gulf Finance Friction: Saudi banks have reportedly delayed or blocked payments to UAE accounts since mid-May, raising fresh concerns that political tensions are spilling into cross-border commerce; the Saudi central bank denies any direct country-specific restrictions. Credit Outlook: Fitch affirmed Saudi Arabia’s A+ rating with a stable outlook, citing strong fiscal buffers and reserves, but warned growth will slow to about 0.6% in 2026 as Strait of Hormuz disruptions weigh on trade. Hormuz Risk Premium: With US-Iran strikes escalating and Trump saying the ceasefire is “over,” shipping and oil-market nerves are back—pushing uncertainty for energy flows that matter directly to Saudi trade and petrochemical exports. Saudi-Canada Deal Momentum: Canadian PM Mark Carney arrived in Jeddah to advance investment and defence ties, framing the visit around deeper economic cooperation with Saudi Arabia. Logistics Push: Mawani added Maersk’s shipping service to Jeddah Islamic Port, expanding Red Sea connectivity to the US and regional hubs. Infrastructure Delivery: AtkinsRéalis won Riyadh Metro and road supervision work for the Royal Commission for Riyadh City, supporting Vision 2030 urban mobility. Trade Diversification: Ghana secured offtake commitments for semi-finished cocoa products with UAE and Saudi buyers, signaling continued Gulf demand for value-added imports. AI/Markets Spotlight: SK Hynix’s record $26.5bn Nasdaq debut underscores the AI-driven memory boom that is reshaping global capital flows.